Since Fidel Castro handed power to his brother Raul, a frequent observation is that the country is in stasis, waiting for the other shoe to drop. This may be true to a large extent, and it is certainly how I characterized the situation after seeing the situation in Cuba earlier this year. At the same time, a look back at the period since Raul Castro was handed control provides some sense that the younger Castro is beginning to put his own stamp on Cuba’s affairs.

The most recent indication of change is the coverage of a gradual release of dissidents from Cuban jails, which has been reported on by Howard LaFranchi of the Christian Science Monitor, among others. The Havana-based Commission for Human Rights and National Reconciliation has indicated that the number of dissidents in Cuba that are imprisoned declined by 20 percent since 2006. This doesn’t excuse the fact that nearly 250 others remain in prison, but, as LaFranchi reports, the decline “is leading some Cuba experts to conclude that some kind of new day is dawning on the Caribbean communist island.”

Earlier this summer, at the July 26 speech commemorating the Cuban revolution, Raul Castro hinted at his desire for economic reform. He alluded to the importance of foreign investment and vague “structural and conceptual changes [that] will have to be introduced.” [Raul has a history in favor of economic reform, and was the one who convinced his brother to implement economic reforms in the mid-90s. Michael Voss of the BBC takes a look at one of the few reforms that has survived.]

He has sent other signals on openness, suggesting back in December 2006 that Cubans should “ ‘fearlessly’ engage in public debate and analysis.” As Anita Snow of AP writes:

"The first principle in constructing any armed forces is the sole command," said the younger Castro, who became Cuba's provisional leader five months ago when Fidel Castro stepped aside after emergency intestinal surgery. "But that doesn't mean that we cannot discuss. That way we reach decisions, and I'm talking about big decisions."

Finally, amid recycled rhetoric about American imperialism and bravado, Raul called for dialogue with the United States in both his July 2007 and December 2006 speeches. While such moves are not unprecedented, they are additional short steps away from his older brother, who did and does not speak of dialogue with the United States with any regularity.

All of the above are minor signals, to be sure, and stand alongside a host of practices that continue to deny information and basic freedoms to the Cuban people – like the decision earlier this year to expel a number of journalists who wrote stories unfavorable to the regime. But the calls for dialogue and economic reform and the gradual release of dissidents are developments worth watching.

This is particularly so because minor signals are all we are likely to see for the foreseeable future. Raul Castro isn’t likely to specify any reform program, at least not while his older brother is still alive and apparently opining on U.S. presidential elections. The world should not expect Raul to spell out the second coming of Perestroika or Glasnost anytime soon, even if it turns out that those are the policies he is slowly pursuing.

Still, as the days tick by, the world continues to see glimmers of what a post-Fidel Cuba might look like. Let’s hope that, for the sake of the Cuban people, positive trends in Cuba accelerate and that the United States starts thinking in earnest about sending our own signals that a new relationship is possible.

-- Jake Colvin