As it becomes more and more likely that the embargo will be lifted, it is important to understand how sizable a steamroller U.S. youth culture can be. College undergrads with too much booze, loose inhibitions, and deep pockets might literally grind the nation to a halt if they descended upon Cuban resorts in full force. Too few rooms; too few cabs; too few drunk tanks. Scantily clad, and the very picture of Capitalist materialism, the vanguard of American pop culture would lay havoc to Havana streets.

It is a real possibility. February’s Economist laid out two potential paths for an embargo-liberated Cuba: first, the spring break vision -- with a rapid vacuum pulling the Castro’s and communism from power -- and second, a model where power structures remain intact as capitalism takes hold, as seen in China, Vietnam, and Mexico.

The reality is that any opening to U.S. travel will be done with caution by Havana. The government has some obvious tools at his disposal -- flight and visa limitations being the most blunt. But internal pressure will grow as the Cuban people see the depth of U.S. demand for Cuban exploration, beaches and culture.

A gradual pace might actually be the best path for both Cuba and Washington. To survive rapid change, as Thomas Carothers points out, effective development of political parties, media, civic education, and civil society at large is reqiure. But the infrastructure of Cuban socialism is not well suited to rapid adaptation. Iraq, of course, has taught foreign policy analysts to not to assume anything when it comes to the pace of political development in post-socialist states.

State failure brought on by rapid economic changes may be more of a threat to U.S. interests than regime survival, as a rapid collapse of the Revolution might just as easily set Cuba on Haiti's trajectory. In such a scenario, the waves of immigrants to South Florida would be overwhelming.

But there is also the question of how much demand there is for political change. Without reliable polling, it’s difficult to get an accurate sense of how deep the Cuban commitment is to the spirit of the revolution -- particularly among the young, the fault line for nearly all political shifts. The Christian Science Monitor’s recent series on Cuba -- which is worth taking time to read -- suggests that Cuba’s generation Y is restless, but not overtly political. Economic issues are much more pressing.

Regardless of the path ahead, spring break will eventually come to Cuba. The questions will be: how soon, and with what force. One thing is certain: as Senator Feingold has put it when talking about Cuba -- “democracy travels best in person.”