Confrontation at the airport photo by Gustavo Amador / European Pressphoto Agency

Diverting momentarily from Cuba, but not really changing the topic of this blog...

No one authoritative has commented on it, but I wonder whether, ironically, the OAS Summit sounded the death knell of democracy in Honduras. President Mel Zelaya and Foreign Minister Patricia Rodas were very visible players in the historic decision to end Cuba's suspension. No doubt this infuriated old guard Havana haters from the Bush Administration.

Certainly the extremists who dominated the first Bush term, Otto Reich and Roger Noriega, rushed to the defense of the coup makers, just as they had with the failed putsch in Venezuela. Is that simply a reflection of their obsession to roll back pro-Cuba governments or were they involved with the plotters as some have charged? Could they have been seeking a fait acompli to box in the Obama Administration?

This is the conspiratorial version by Venezuelan journalist Jose Vicente Rangel:

"In Honduras two distinct lines of North American politics revealed
themselves, one coming from the White House and the other through the
machinery put in place by the administration of George W. Bush at the
military base of Palmarola", he said.

Rangel explained that this became apparent on the morning of June 28,
when two important functionaries of the State Department, James
Steimberg and Tom Shannon, contacted the US embassy in Tegucigalpa
and the military base in Palmarola to discuss the coup d'etat and to
impede any intention to support it.

Mr. Micheletti has embarked on a public relations offensive, with his supporters hiring high-profile lawyers with strong Washington connections to lobby against such sanctions. One powerful Latin American business council hired Lanny J. Davis, who has served as President Clinton’s personal lawyer and who campaigned for Mrs. Clinton for president.

And last week, Mr. Micheletti brought the adviser from another firm with Clinton ties to the talks in Costa Rica. The adviser, Bennett Ratcliff of San Diego, refused to give details about his role at the talks.

“Every proposal that Micheletti’s group presented was written or approved by the American,” said another official close to the talks, referring to Mr. Ratcliff....

Mr. Micheletti’s supporters are pushing back in part by paying hundreds of dollars an hour to well-connected Washington lawyers who have initiated a charm offensive from Washington. On Friday, Mr. Davis was testifying on Capitol Hill in support of Mr. Micheletti’s de facto government.

And on Saturday, Mr. Davis called reporters close to midnight to notify them that Mr. Micheletti had fired Enrique Ortez, whom he had appointed as his foreign minister, for having outraged American officials by referring in a television interview to President Obama as “that little black guy who doesn’t even know where Tegucigalpa is located.”

I wonder whether Davis bothered to mention that Enrique Ortez was only moved from Foreign Minister to Minister of Justice and Government and had been the source of drug trafficking allegations against Zelaya.

The actions of Davis and Ratcliff raise questions about how links from Bill Clinton's era may complicate the foreign policy of the Obama Administration.

Their high profile pro-coup activities merit investigation. Providing paid testimony to Congress and shaping Roberto Micheletti's hard line stance in mediation talks should require both to register as foreign agents.

Who recruited and paid Davis and Ratcliff? Did they directly or indirectly use their former Clinton relationship to try to influence the Secretary of State? If so, does this compromise her role as an honest broker, and her nomination of President Arias as mediator?

Is it significant that both those above and below the Secretary (President Obama and the State Department spokesperson) have been clearer than she that Zelaya himself must return to power to restore democracy?

Not least is the problem of appearances. If President Zelaya and his government are not quickly restored to power, skeptics in Latin America will conclude that Micheletti and the coup makers are the allies if not the creatures of US interests. The real goal of mediation will be seen as running out the clock to keep the betrayers of democracy in control during an accelerated election campaign.

More people in Honduras opposed than backed the coup (46 to 41%), a figure that was hidden in many press reports. Zelaya has set a deadline of this weekend for mediation to restore his position. Venezuela leaning governments in bordering Nicaragua and El Salvador will certainly be concerned that allowing the status quo to prevail in Honduras might induce right wingers within their armies to believe they too can get away with a coup.

Reich and Noriega may have expected that these events would lead Cuba and the US to fall into old patterns, denounce each other vociferously, and be forced to turn away from gradually improving the bilateral atmosphere. In fact key leaders in the two countries may have discovered a common interest in the peaceful return of Zelaya and democracy to Honduras.

--John McAuliff

Resources:

"Showdown in Tegucigolpe", a progressive overview from Foreign Policy in Focus

"Honduras Had a New Kind of Coup" in the Los Angeles Times

"U.S. can repair democracy, not settle scores", Op ed by John Kerry in Miami Herald

"In Deeply Split Honduran Society, a Potentially Combustible Situation" from the Washington Post

"Washington & the Coup in Honduras: Here is the Evidence", blog by Venezuelan-American attorney Eva Gollinger