AP photo/Juventud Rebelde

When it comes to U.S. Cuba policy, there are basically three schools of thought: try to overthrow/undermine the Cuban government; try to engage the government and the people; and, continue the status quo (isolation), because eventually, the "biological solution" will solve the Problem for us.

The biological solution, which holds that Fidel Castro will, in fact - no, really - actually have to die one day (and when he does, many subscribers believe, a new day can dawn over Cuba), took a hit last week - with new photos and video showing Fidel Castro fit as a fiddle. [Update: the video footage is the most we've seen of Castro in more than 3 years - judge his state of health for yourself: http://www.cubadebate.cu/especiales/2009/08/23/fidel-y-los-jovenes-venezolanos-video/]

I know it can be confusing, what with Castro on his deathbed for more than a decade now (did you know there's a website with weekly updates?). There was the fainting spell, the trip-and-fall played round the world on an endless loop, the advance of Parkinson's.

But this last round of rumors really had folks going. Recall that three years ago, the world learned - via a message read by his secretary - that then-President Fidel Castro had temporarily stepped down to undergo abdominal surgery. As the weeks went by with no word from Fidel, speculation of his death was rampant. A picture of el Commandante supposedly in his casket was circulated. And though the U.S. Administration didn't buy in to quite that degree, then Director of National Intelligence, John Negroponte, felt assured that Castro's days were literally numbered to "months, not years," because he was "terminally ill" with cancer. Over the last several years, we've not seen one live image of Fidel, but only a handful of photo ops with visiting dignitaries, meted out every few months, along with one or two b-roll video shots.

As Fidel recovered his health somewhat he would pen op-eds opining on international events (with more than a passing interest in the U.S. election). Then his pen fell silent for a few weeks early this year - and again, rumor had it he really was dead this time.

This month, as Fidel Castro turned 83, several new photos were released and show him healthier - and more social - than he's looked in years. In addition to meeting with Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa last week, Castro visited with a group of Venezuelan law students, and also spent time with his ment-ee, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Castro has been taking more appointments lately, and if the photos don't lie, he's even given up pajamas for street clothes.

This is not to say that Castro will or even could take over as President again, or return in some other way to micromanaging Cuba's affairs into the wee hours of the morning. But he and his op-ed pen still seem to wield significant psychological power, both over brother Raul Castro and the Cuban political apparatus more generally.

When Raul Castro took over the presidency, he offered an honest and raw assessment of Cuba's economic situation back in July 2007 - encouraging a national debate on Cuba's problems and promising action on tough issues like increasing productivity, so as to increase salaries and eventually unify Cuba's dual currency. But since exposing these major problems, Raul's government has taken almost no significant steps to address the problems (save a critical reform of the country's agriculture sector).

Among the complicating factors are last year's devastating hurricane season (which the Cuban government says caused more than $10 billion in economic damage), Cuba's over-reliance on Venezuelan oil imports, and falling export earnings (with Cuba's key export, nickel, significantly down over the last several years). But surely he is not without options. Increasing the operating space for more small Cuban entrepreneurs could certainly have some immediate impact on the island on productivity, consumption, purchasing power and so on (it did in the 1990's crisis years).

I've heard some people theorize that Raul Castro is just waiting for Fidel to pass away - a simplistic and ridiculous-sounding idea, to be sure. But what if there were a grain of truth to that? What if Raul Castro has been slow-walking larger reforms to Cuban economy either to spare his brother the political heartache or else to spare himself the political heartburn?

Let's hope that idea is just what it sounds like - crazy. If these new photos of Fidel are any indication, Raul should take a lesson from director Michael Rubbo (who made a documentary out of waiting for an interview with Fidel - that never happened): waiting for Fidel is never a sure bet. But if you pay good attention, you'll notice that life is what happens while you're waiting.

-- Anya Landau French